Caribbean Stud Poker House Edge
The Caribbean Poker House Edge can be calculated by comparing the
True Caribbean Poker
Odds and the Caribbean
Stud Casino Odds. The formula used to calculate the Expected Return
on Caribbean Stud Poker is:
Expected Return = P[Win]xWin - P[Loss]xLoss
Once the Expected Return is calculated it's easy to derive the
House Edge or Casino Advantage using the following formula:
House Edge = Casino Advantage = -Expected Return * 100%
In the following table we've listed the probability* of each event
that can occur in Caribbean Stud Poker in the second column (P[Event]).
The assumption underlying these probabilities is that the player
plays *perfect* strategy. Read our Caribbean
Stud Poker Strategy section for more information.
In the third column we've listed the amount a player wins or loses
with each event occurring (Return), assuming the player bets $1
on his or her Ante bet. These amounts are based on a standard payout
table. Please refer to our Caribbean
Stud Poker Pay Table for more information on standard and non-standard
payout tables.
For example, if you bet $1 on your Ante bet and the dealer wins
after you've placed your Call bet (which has to be twice the amount
of the Ante bet), you lose $3.
Another example: if you win with a Royal Flush after placing your
$1 Ante bet and your $2 Call bet, you are paid out even money on
your Ante bet ($1), and 100 to 1 on your Call bet ($200), thus winning
a total of $201.
In the fourth column we've calculated the product of the second
and the third column.
| Event |
P[Event] |
Return |
P[Event]*Return |
| Non Winning Hands |
| Dealer wins |
13.678629% |
-3 |
-0.41035 |
| Fold |
47.7774524% |
-1 |
-0.477774524 |
| Push |
0.001614% |
0 |
0 |
| Winning hands |
| Ante only (dealer doesn't qualify) |
22.738482% |
1 |
0.22738482 |
| Ace/King |
0.092838% |
3 |
0.00278514 |
| Pair |
11.662647% |
3 |
0.34987941 |
| Two Pair |
2.448234% |
5 |
0.1224117 |
| Three of a Kind |
1.175138% |
7 |
0.08225966 |
| Straight |
0.219761% |
9 |
0.01977849 |
| Flush |
0.109651% |
11 |
0.01206161 |
| Full House |
0.083401% |
15 |
0.01251015 |
| Four of Kind |
0.01421% |
41 |
0.0058261 |
| Straight Flush |
0.000787% |
101 |
0.00079487 |
| Royal Flush |
0.000084% |
201 |
0.00016884 |
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|
|
|
| Expected Return |
|
|
-0.0522 |
The Caribbean Stud Poker House Edge or Casino Advantage is calculated
by multiplying each probability in the second column, with each
amount won or lost in the second column, and then adding the obtained
values. The resulting value is the Expected Return. The House Edge
can be derived from Expected Return by expressing Expected Return
as a percentage, and by reversing it's sign. As most casino games
are negative expectation games, the Expected Return will normally
be a negative number, and the House Edge thus a positive percentage.
Conclusion: Given the assumptions of playing perfect
strategy, and a standard Caribbean Stud Pay Table, the Expected
Return on Caribbean Poker is -0.0522, and the corresponding Caribbean
Stud Poker House Edge is 5.22%. In other words you will lose on
average 5.22 cents of each $1 Ante bet you make, which is rather
high.
A more detailed analysis of the Caribbean Stud Poker house edge
is available in PDF format here.
*All probabilities listed on this page are derived
from Michael Shackleford's analysis of Caribbean Stud Poker, which
can be found here.
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